Kim Jong Un Art of the Deal Change of Heart

In this June 12, 2018, photo, U.S. President Donald Trump stands with Northward Korean leader Kim Jong Un during a meeting on Sentosa Isle, in Singapore. For some observers, the nightmare upshot of the second superlative between Trump and Kim is an ill-considered deal that allows North korea to get everything information technology wants while giving up very little, even every bit the mercurial leaders trumpet a blockbuster nuclear success. (AP Photo/Evan Vucci)

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HANOI, Vietnam – The nightmare scenario heading into the 2d summit betwixt President Donald Trump and North Korean leader Kim Jong Un isn't so much "fire and fury" and millions expressionless. Rather, some experts fear the coming together could consequence in an ill-considered deal that allows Democratic people's republic of korea to become everything it wants while giving upwards very piddling, even as the mercurial leaders trumpet a blockbuster nuclear success.

There'southward piddling argument that just sitting down together again in the same room this week in Hanoi is a positive sign for ii men who seemed to be flirting with a 2nd Korean War in 2017, and at that place is, every bit the White House trumpeted alee of the meridian, "a tremendous opportunity" here to address a monumental problem that'due south flummoxed generations of policymakers.

Merely with the stakes so high, a growing chorus of experts highlight a particular risk: that Trump, burned past criticism that the results of his June meeting with Kim in Singapore were vague at best and an outright failure at worst, volition ignore his more cautious aides and effort to strike a deal that's cobbled together on the wing with little preparatory piece of work.

Why is this potentially dangerous? Because when it comes to North Korean nuclear affairs, all deals are not created equal.

A look at some of the anxieties that are swirling ahead of the Hanoi acme:

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WORRY NO. 1: A PIECEMEAL Bargain

South Korean papers take been filled with unidentified regime sources suggesting that Trump and Kim might strike a deal that stops far brusque of the road map for the full denuclearization of the North that the The states has long insisted on.

Instead, Kim could agree to surrender only part of his arsenal — his intercontinental missiles aimed at America, for instance, or his main nuclear reactor — in return for an easing of harsh sanctions. There's also fear that Trump will somewhen orchestrate some sort of drawdown of U.S. troops from South korea or an extended halt to U.Southward.-South Korean military drills.

For Trump, such a deal could generate a much-needed rush of "breakthrough" headlines to aid distract from swirling investigations in Washington while helping assure his supporters that he's protecting the American mainland.

Kim, for his part, would be taking a huge step toward cementing the North as a nuclear weapons state and, as a bonus, driving a wedge in the U.S.-S Korea alliance that the Northward maintains is aimed at the overthrow of the Kim family — all without addressing the North'southward armory of short- and mid-range nuclear armed missiles aimed at Seoul, Tokyo and other parts of Asia.

Those in favor of this kind of piecemeal deal say it's simply a matter of accepting reality: North Korea won't requite up nukes information technology sees equally crucial to deterring what information technology calls U.Southward. hostility, so the wise move is to work to starting time limit or freeze the programme's virtually worrisome aspects and then work toward full denuclearization.

Skeptics say this would requite the N too much in render for too little. They desire instead something that start forces Pyongyang to list the particulars of its nuclear programme, then allows outsiders to verify the list and see the programme demolished.

"Advertizement hoc deals or piecemeal negotiations absent an agreed-on road map would permit Pyongyang to dictate the terms, step and duration of the diplomatic process without making a paring in North korea's nuclear armory," Duyeon Kim, a Koreas practiced at the Center for a New American Security, recently wrote.

"There is a serious adventure of Trump advert-libbing his fashion into a bad bargain, as he did in Singapore in June 2018, by relinquishing vital bargaining chips that disadvantage U.South. interests and Asian allies' security," she added.

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WORRY NO. 2: KIM AND TRUMP ARE Besides ALIGNED

There'southward a joke being shared by some North korea experts: Did you hear that Kim Jong Un and Donald Trump both desire the same affair from their Hanoi summit? The United States out of South korea.

Funny or not, the dark humor gets at serious doubts churned up by Trump'southward repeated public expressions of a deep wariness about the U.S.-South korea alliance that many in Seoul and Washington see as a lynchpin of Northeast Asian security.

The best example may exist Trump'due south stunning announcement in Singapore of the interruption of annual military machine drills by Seoul and Washington that North Korea rails against as "invasion preparation."

Trump called the drills "very provocative," mirroring North Korean language.

Although his lieutenants say the removal of American troops isn't on the agenda in Hanoi, Trump has said that he wants to eventually bring home the 28,500 troops stationed in the Due south. Just this month Trump said: "South korea — nosotros defend them and lose a tremendous amount of money. Billions of dollars a year defending them."

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WORRY NO. 3: Northward KOREA HASN'T Changed

In that location's besides alarm that Trump and South korea'south dovish president are misreading Democratic people's republic of korea.

"Kim is not going to unilaterally give up his nuclear weapons," Vipin Narang, a N Korea nuclear skilful at MIT, said in an interview. "Information technology is now pretty articulate that Trump doesn't care that Kim isn't going to unilaterally disarm, so long as he doesn't embarrass Trump past visibly flying testing missiles or openly testing nuclear weapons."

Despite the positive spin on Northward Korean intentions by the liberal government in Seoul, critics say, Pyongyang, equally it has since the Korean War, notwithstanding claims to be the sole legitimate Korean government, and is therefore working to split Republic of korea from its U.South. protector and enshrine its nuclear program, even if partially, equally a way to eventually coerce Seoul into doing its behest.

N Korea has famously called its nuclear arsenal a "treasured sword." And a senior N Korean official said terminal year that dialogue won't proceed "if the U.S. is trying to bulldoze united states of america into a corner to strength our unilateral nuclear abandonment."

Asked at a recent printing briefing if the North was negotiating in good organized religion, a senior U.Southward. official who refused to requite his name under White House rules said: "I don't know if North korea has made the choice yet to denuclearize. But the reason why we're engaged in this is because we believe at that place's a possibility that North Korea can make the choice to fully denuclearize."

Trump tweeted Lord's day that he and Kim "both expect a continuation of the progress made at first Elevation in Singapore. Denuclearization?"

Still, there are big doubts about the N's intentions.

When the 2 leaders encounter in Hanoi, Kim "will further ensnare Trump on his march toward full nuclearization, compelling Trump to make more concessions like a peace agreement and drawdown of military machine back up for South korea," said Sung-Yoon Lee, a Koreas skilful at Tufts University. "'Peace' sounds very pleasant, even hypnotically alluring, but a peace understanding between the U.Southward. and North Korea and assuasive Kim Jong Un to purchase more than time only increases the chance of state of war."

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Foster Klug is the AP's bureau chief in South Korea and has covered the Koreas since 2005. Follow him at www.twitter.com/apklug

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Source: https://www.foxnews.com/us/nightmare-result-of-us-nkorea-talks-bad-deal-little-change